If however we saw a flop with a pocket pair 10.000 times, then flopping a set 1.100 times or 1.400 times rather than the expected 1.250 times will already put us far out on the bell curve, because not many people will run this cold or hot.

So even a large relative deviation like seeing 100% fewer or more sets wont put us far out on the bell curve, because its a fairly common outcome. Then we were expected to flop a set once, but of course many samples will see us flopping a set 0 or 2 times and occationally 3+. Say we only saw a flop with a pocket pair 8 times. So even if the graph show, we have been running cold with sets, flushes and straights over 200k hands, that might only mean, we have hit them a few percent less often than statistically expected. miss completely.Īlso a standard deviation will be way smaller after 200k hands than 10k hands. Or even just how often we hit top pair vs. Our results will also be influenzed by, how often our opponents make big hands, when we are playing with them, and by the distribution of coolers like AA vs. When looking at curves like these or for that matter all-in adjusted EV, its important to remember, that they only measure a selected part of variance or luck.